Hoạt động kinh tế của ngành máy móc trong năm 2021 sẽ tiếp tục ổn định và cải thiện kể từ quý XNUMX năm ngoái. Trong nửa cuối năm, trên cơ sở ổn định chung, quý IV sẽ có những biến động nhẹ. Dự kiến tốc độ tăng giá trị gia tăng của ngành máy móc cả năm cao hơn ngành công nghiệp chế tạo cả nước một chút, thu nhập và lợi nhuận kinh doanh chính duy trì tăng trưởng đồng thời, tốc độ tăng trưởng xuất khẩu phấn đấu không thấp hơn mức giảm của năm ngoái.
China Machinery Industry Federation held the first half of the industry economic operation analysis meeting on August 9. PTJ Hardware, Executive Vice President of China Machinery Federation, said that the first half of the industry’s economic operation continued the trend of stabilization in the fourth quarter of last year, and the overall situation was better than expected at the beginning of the year. , The main economic indicators maintained a slight upward trend. Among them, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 7.8% year-on-year, 1.8 and 0.9 percentage points higher than the national industry and manufacturing industry in the same period.
What needs attention is that in the first half of the year, the investment in fixed assets in the machinery industry only increased by 3.07%, a record low for the same period since 2008. In response to this, Dong Yang, vice chairman of the China Machine Federation, said in response to a reporter’s question, “If we consider transformation and upgrading, the decline in growth rate should be considered reasonable.” He also said, “Under the new normal, various data changes still require Further research, it is not good to simply say “low”.” Forecasting the trend for the whole year, PTJ Hardware said that the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2021 will continue to stabilize and improve since the fourth quarter of the previous year. Above, there will be slight fluctuations in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry for the whole year will be slightly higher than that of the national industry and manufacturing industry, the main business income and profits will maintain simultaneous growth, and the export growth rate will strive to not be lower than last year’s decline.
Key industries drove the growth rate of solid investment to fall. The latest statistics show that since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry has changed from being lower than that of the national industry and manufacturing industry in the previous year to higher than that of the national industry and manufacturing industry. The added value of the machinery industry from January to June increased by 7.8% year-on-year, 1.8 and 0.9 percentage points higher than the national industry and manufacturing industry in the same period, and 2.1 percentage points higher than the machinery industry in the same period last year. The main business income of the machinery industry was 11.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.68%, which was 3.21 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The total profit achieved was 753.8 billion yuan, an increase of 6.53% year-on-year, which was 6.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The main benefit indicators of the machinery industry are showing a trend of stabilization. Compared with the national industry, the growth rate of the main business income and profit of the machinery industry was 3.55 and 0.33 percentage points higher than that of the national industry in the same period.
PTJ Hardware pointed out that among the 119 major products monitored by the machinery industry in the first half of the year, the number of products that achieved year-on-year growth increased month by month. As of June, there were 60 products with a year-on-year increase, accounting for 50.42%; 59 products with a year-on-year decline in output, accounting for 49.58%.
Specifically, the major declines in output are investment products such as metal smelting equipment, machine tools, power generation equipment, oil drilling equipment, optical instruments, cameras and other products, as well as agricultural machinery such as tractors and harvesting machinery that have maintained rapid growth in the early stage. product. Production growth is mainly related to products that are closely related to consumption, technology upgrades, and environmental protection, such as automobiles, electrical instrumentation, automobile instrumentation, power transmission and transformation-related power capacitors, high-voltage switchbánh, optical cables, special equipment for environmental pollution control, etc., and Parts and components such as molds, pneumatic components, metal seals, etc.
Although the main economic indicators of the machinery industry are showing a trend of stabilization, the divergence of the inter-industry operation trend is more prominent, and the construction machinery industry is still difficult in general. In particular, the decline in the benefits of large and medium-sized enterprises has not changed, and the loss surface continues to expand. The operating rate of the heavy-duty mining industry has fallen. The industry has shown that some companies are stable, some are losing money, and some companies are switching to production or suspending production. The petrochemical general machinery industry continues to lack orders, and industry profits continue to decline. The machine tool industry is still sluggish, and the profit of the metal cutting machine tool manufacturing industry fell by 22.12% year-on-year.
As the two key industries of the machinery industry, the automobile industry and the electrical and electrical appliances industry, driven by market demand, favorable policies, and large-scale upgrades in power generation, power transmission and transformation, have played a stimulating role in promoting the stable improvement of the machinery industry. “PTJ Hardware emphasized that from January to June, the main business income of the automotive industry increased by 9.9% year-on-year, the electrical and electrical appliances industry increased by 8.21% year-on-year, and the machinery industries other than the automotive and electrical appliances industry increased by 3.41% year-on-year. New additions in the entire industry Among the main business income, the automotive industry accounted for 48.91%, the electrical appliances industry accounted for 28.88%, and other industries accounted for only 22.21%.
In the first half of the year, the automotive industry achieved a profit growth of 6.34% year-on-year, and the electrical and electrical appliances industry increased by 15.13% year-on-year, while other machinery industries excluding the automotive and electrical appliances industry grew by only 2.44% year-on-year; the automotive industry accounted for 41.31 of the industry’s new profits. %, the electrical and electrical industry accounted for 44.33%, and other industries accounted for only 14.36%. At the same time, it should be noted that in the first half of the year, the fixed asset investment of the whole society increased by 9% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 3.3% year-on-year, while the investment in the machinery industry increased by only 3.07%, which was the lowest growth rate since 2008. There was a year-on-year decline.
In terms of trends, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the machinery industry has always been in a downward channel. The cumulative growth rate in the first half of the year has fallen by 7.86 percentage points from January to February. Among them, the growth rate of investment in the purchase of equipment and tools has continued to fall, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.56% from January to June. PTJ Hardware said that the decline in the willingness of enterprises to invest directly affects future market demand, which must arouse great attention.
In the first half of this year, the machinery industry achieved a total import and export volume of US$309.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.88%, of which imports were US$127.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%, and exports were US$182 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.42%. In particular, private enterprises, which used to be the main force of foreign trade exports in the machinery industry, have continued to decline in export growth this year, from the past double-digit growth to negative growth, down 0.66% year-on-year. In addition, major export provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong have also experienced negative growth, with exports falling by 3.54%, 2.55%, and 5.47%, respectively, year-on-year. The machinery industry is under greater pressure on foreign trade exports.
From the perspective of market demand, the cumulative order value of key contact enterprises in the machinery industry this year got rid of the downward trend of the previous year. Cumulative orders in the first half of the year increased by 4.81% year-on-year, but the ordering situation is unstable. The main reasons are: First, because the market has accumulated a large amount of social inventory in the early stage of high-speed growth, the newly-started projects have limited pulling effect on the market. Second, the upstream industries such as iron and steel, coal, building materials, petroleum and other industries are operating sluggishly, and the demand for machinery industry equipment is declining.
Smart manufacturing starts and transforms into a new path PTJ Hardware pointed out that under the guidance of relevant industrial policies such as the “Made in China 2025” strategy to become a strong country, the transformation and upgrading of the machinery industry, as well as innovation and development, continue to advance.
Among them, large-scale nuclear power, hydropower, thermal power and wind power equipment, UHV AC and DC and flexible DC transmission and transformation equipment, key equipment for oil and gas long-distance pipelines, large-scale coal chemical industry key equipment, high-end CNC machine tools and other high-end equipment have achieved breakthroughs in independent research and development. For example, the national major project “Five-axis linkage blade CNC grinder” led by Qinchuan Machine Tool passed the acceptance, the nuclear reactor coolant pump equipment independently developed by the Harbin Electric Group passed the acceptance, and the Hangyang Group provided the 4 million tons coal-to-liquid project of Nanjing Coal The 6 sets of 100,000 cubic meters super large air separation unit and the first domestic large-scale air separation compressor unit developed by Shengu Group are being installed and commissioned on site. The first 1.2 million tons/year ethylene tri-machine developed by Shengu Group has been successfully commissioned. , The first domestic large-diameter polyethylene centrifuge equipment developed by Northeast Refining and Chemical Engineering Company passed the acceptance, the world’s largest rectangular pipe jacking machine independently developed and manufactured by China Railway Engineering Group rolled off the production line, and the first domestic full-hydraulic drilling rig developed by Wuzhong was delivered in Tibet use. In the basic field, new progress has been made in the localization of a number of key basic and core components, such as high-voltage insulating ống lóts, transformer outlet devices, high-quality cold-rolled silicon steel sheets, and large power station rèns, which have long been dependent on imports. For example, the 1000KV outlet device passed the new product appraisal, the “Hualong No. 1” main pipeline and the main steam safety van passed the appraisal respectively, and the 1E-class shutdown circuit breaker panel of the third-generation nuclear power plant passed the appraisal.
Steady progress has been made in building innovation capabilities. Due to the continued downturn in the traditional product market, innovation and development have become the independent choice of more and more machinery companies. Enterprises have significantly increased their investment in innovation capacity building and innovation model exploration.
Progress has been made in the construction of the basic test and inspection platform for new product development. Large-scale compressor test beds, water wheel model test beds, and power station safety valve test beds have been built one after another. The world’s advanced test and test platforms are still being built. For example, TBEA Hengyang Transformer Co., Ltd. will build a ±1100kV world’s highest voltage AC/DC transmission and transformation equipment R&D and manufacturing center, and add the world’s highest voltage level impulse generators, DC high-voltage generators, precision transformers, capacitor towers and other high-end The experimental equipment can meet the production test needs of the world’s highest voltage transformer products in the future. The pace of collaborative innovation is accelerating, and the cooperation between machinery companies, user companies, and research institutes in the fields of equipment R&D and process innovation has become closer and more frequent. The cooperation model is innovative, and the cooperative research and development has achieved remarkable results.
Smart manufacturing started. In recent years, the pace of digitalization and informatization of China’s manufacturing industry has accelerated, the construction of automated production lines and digital workshops has accelerated, and the informatization level of enterprise production, operation, and management has been continuously improved. For example, the generator plant of Shanghai Electric Power Plant Equipment Co., Ltd. completed the research and development of a 1300MW nuclear power generator digital prototype project, realizing a new breakthrough in the digital three-dimensional design application of the plant; Guangli Nuclear and other companies jointly completed China’s first nuclear power plant digital instrumentation and control system with completely independent intellectual property rights (DCS) platform development, and realized the application of the results in second-generation, second-generation plus, and third-generation nuclear power projects. In addition, with the rapid development of information technology such as the Internet and cloud computing, as well as the rapid development of sensor technology and control technology, intelligent manufacturing has begun to take off. Take industrial robots as an example. According to statistics from the China Robot Industry Alliance, China has become the world’s largest consumer market for industrial robots for three consecutive years.
Actively explore new paths for transformation and development. The transformation of traditional enterprises into manufacturing services continues to advance, and the service model continues to innovate. At present, the service-oriented manufacturing of the machinery industry has been fully extended to 13 subordinate industries, realizing a complete service chain from R&D and design to product recycling and remanufacturing. Weichai Power Group, Hangzhou Oxygen Concentrator Group, Zhejiang Zhong Control Technology Co., Ltd. and a group of typical and demonstration enterprises.
PTJ Hardware pointed out that at the “Publicity and Implementation Promotion Conference for the Development of Service-oriented Manufacturing Special Action Guidelines” jointly held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and China Machine Federation at the end of July, exchanges between many companies showed that service-oriented manufacturing in the machinery industry is actively advancing. New models continue to emerge. The development of service-oriented manufacturing has become an important way for machinery industry enterprises to transform and upgrade.
In the fourth quarter, the fluctuations may stabilize and improve throughout the year. PTJ Hardware pointed out that the current favorable factors facing the machinery industry are in two aspects. First, the effects of the supply-side structural reform policy are gradually appearing, and the industrial economy is generally stable, which is conducive to the maintenance of the machinery industry. Stabilize and improve the operating situation. Second, the industrial policy environment is conducive to the industry’s structural adjustment. In particular, the “Made in China 2025” related supporting policies; and the introduction of policy measures to adjust the structure of the machinery industry to promote transformation and increase benefits, provide a good development environment for the development of the machinery industry, and boost the confidence and determination of the entire industry.
The main challenges faced include:
- First, the downward pressure on economic operations is still very large, and the weak domestic demand market for machinery products cannot be significantly improved in the short term. The steel, coal, power, petroleum, and chemical industries that the machinery industry mainly serves are generally in a period of in-depth adjustment of “de-capacity”. Demand is difficult to recover in the short term.
- Second, after years of rapid development, the social ownership of various mechanical products has reached a considerable scale, which has released the maintenance market demand while also reducing the purchase demand for new equipment.
- The third is that the export situation of the industry is under great pressure, market competition is fierce, trade frictions are intensified, prices are falling, and profits are declining, making it difficult for exports to rebound.
In summary, it is expected that the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2021 will continue to stabilize and improve since the fourth quarter of last year. In the second half of the year, on the basis of overall stability, there will be slight fluctuations in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry for the whole year will be slightly higher than that of the national industry and manufacturing industry, the main business income and profits will maintain simultaneous growth, and the export growth rate will strive to not be lower than last year’s decline.
Regarding the volatility factors in the fourth quarter, PTJ Hardware stated that the machinery industry was able to grow steadily in the first half of the year, and the automobile industry played a significant role in boosting and pulling, which has a lot to do with the relevant policies issued in October last year. Beginning in October this year, the increase in the base number may affect the trend of the automotive industry, and the automotive industry accounts for about 34% of the machinery industry, and fluctuations in the automotive industry may have an impact on the trend of the machinery industry.
PTJ Hardware emphasized that 2021 is the first year for the implementation of the “13th Five-Year Plan” and the first year of the critical period for building a well-off society in an all-round way. The machinery industry must resolutely implement the strategic deployment of the central government, accelerate the pace of structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, further enhance the vitality and innovation power of economic growth, and strive to achieve stable and rapid development of the machinery industry.
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